OE Threat Assessment Jordan

INTRODUCTION:

Perhaps the most significant historical event to affect Jordan in the past quarter-century is the 1994 peace treaty the late King Hussein signed with Israel, formally recognizing that country’s right to exist as a sovereign state. The occasion also went far toward healing a rift with the United States, which dated from to the First Gulf War in 1990, when Jordan supported Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait. Supporting Iraq in that conflict incidentally alienated Sunni Jordan from Shiite Iran, another major power in the region. Three years later, when Jordan made peace with Israel, the rift with Iran became permanent. Since that time, Jordan has been a stalwart regional ally of the Western powers, especially the United States. 2009 marked the sixtieth anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Shockwaves from the Arab Spring reached Jordan early in 2011. As a result, the current hereditary monarch, King Abdullah II, faces a number of domestic challenges. Foremost among them are lingering tensions related to the Israeli occupation of Palestine, a demand for greater democratization, if not elimination, of the Hashemite monarchy, and economic hardships caused by the interruption of fuel resources formerly furnished by Egypt.

Although no known terrorist organizations operate in Jordan, the country’s greatest threat is that Islamic extremists may attempt to hijack legitimate popular demands for political, social, and economic reforms. The outbreak in November 2012 of violent protests against a recent government decision to lift price constraints on fuel confirms that some citizens are willing to risk imprisonment for violating a long-standing taboo against publicly criticizing the monarch. The Islamic Action Front (IAF), a Jordanian offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, now spearheads popular protests, and is vowing to boycott national parliamentary elections scheduled for January 2013. Although King Abdullah remains a popular monarch, a successful election boycott could have dire implications for the stability of his government.

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