Key judgements:
- COVID-19 is more likely to increase in Afghanistan due to travel to and from Iran and Pakistan, and within the country.
- COVID-19 is more likely to reach 5000 (or beyond) by the end of June 2020, the majority of cases emanating from Nangrahar, Kabul, Khost, Kandahar, Badakhshan, Balkh and Herat among others.
- Lock down in major cities is more likely to continue for another two months (end of June) with the probability to re-consider limited work hours in July 2020 (and beyond).
- Foreign militants along with Taliban insurgents are more likely to escalate violence in throughout the next two months amid COVID-19, all else considered.
Discussion:
COVID-19 in Afghanistan is most likely to reach a zenith in August or September 2020, while insurgency driven violence continues in Northern and Southwestern Afghanistan. Recent increases in identified positive cases indicate a steady (less fluctuating) expansion of the virus across the country. Meanwhile, the Taliban and HQN attacks against civilians and the Afghan security forces remain high (a violation of the US-Taliban agreement by the group). The Taliban refused national and international calls to consider a ceasefire amid the COVID-19 crisis in Afghanistan.
Additionally, foreign militants continue to exploit the time space amid COVID-19 crisis to extract natural resources, recruit fighters strongly inclined to join, collect and smuggle narcotics, and manage weapons transfers in and out of Afghanistan. Consequently, the nexus of violence, criminal activities, and COVID-19 crisis in Afghanistan exacerbates the socioeconomic, military, and political state of affairs, in the country. However, the Afghan security and other government institutions, civil societies, cultural and worship centers, and media and relevant international organizations can cooperate in creating public awareness, share information and resources, and prioritize and execute plans to prevent, respond, and recover from COVID-19.
Ultimately, the ANDSF is more likely to experience greater pressure as they ought to focus on both delivering military security and responding to the COVID-19 crisis, in the next several months. A whole-government approach with greater flexibility to battle insurgency and the health crisis in Afghanistan is essential. Task-forces on the national and sub-national (provincial/zones) levels may consider more robust cooperation and coordination in terms of sharing timely information and resources to better fight the health crisis, which may give the ANDSF greater flexibility to deliver military security to the society.