Shortly after Russia’s 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, TRADOC G-2 launched an effort to compile observations of Russia’s actions during the war and determine whether they reinforced or refuted 10 unclassified Key Assessments (KAs) TRADOC G-2 had previously developed. These KAs were based on analysis of Russia’s New Generation Warfare concept and a study completed by the Asymmetric Warfare Group (AWG) referenced in this 2019 article, “This is How the Army Thinks Russia Would Wage War,” as well as in The Russian Way of War; TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare; The Operational Environment (2021 – 2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict; and ATP 7-100.1 Russian Tactics (to be published). TRADOC G-2 publishes a weekly running estimate of this information, as further described in another article in this quarter’s Red Diamond. Daily, TRADOC G-2 leads a group of analysts who contribute to a pool of observations, and weekly the analysts vet them for relevance and accuracy before incorporating them into the Running Estimate.
Several months into the war, TRADOC G-2 began publishing unclassified articles based on the vetted observations in these weekly running estimates to provide a more holistic perspective on whether our assessments about how Russia fights was consistent or inconsistent with our expectations in relation to each of the 10 assessments. These 10 KA papers are available on our public Teams site (TRADOC G-2 Russia-Ukraine Observations) and below is a list of the Key Assessments, for your convenience. Please let us know if you have any comments and if you would like to join our group.