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Running Estimate 11 - Domestic Russian Perceptions: Crimea

This Running Estimate…

  • Russian Domestic Support for Putin and the Special Military Operations remains high, although a majority of Russians support negotiations to end the conflict.
  • Russia has a Crimea fixation, which explains its repeated efforts to unify the peninsula under Russian rule.
  • Crimea is strategically important to Russian regional hegemony and Ukrainian sovereignty.
  • Crimean Tatars may be a force multiplier for Ukraine if it attempts to retake Crimea.
  • Zelenskyy’s call to reclaim Crimea is meant to rally Ukrainians and divert Russia’s attention, but may be a redline for Putin.
Susan Littleton