In This Running Estimate…
- Putin’s popularity in May and June matched his previous high of 78% from March during the Russian presidential election. Consistently high support for the “Special Military Operation” (SMO) into its third year may indicate the Russian population has normalized the conflict. This is despite a record high 58% of Russians in favor of a negotiated end to the war.
- Since 2021, Russia and Belarus have facilitated a surge of illegal immigration into NATO/EU border states with the intent to overwhelm and destabilize security and government services in these areas.
- Multiple EU/NATO countries have experienced a raft of destructive and intimidating incidents, including arson, sabotage, attempted assassinations, cyber-attacks, and bomb threats, many linked to Russia.
- EU migration policies have created difficulties in tracking illegal migrants once inside the EU. These same policies reportedly have placed unforeseen burdens on member nations with major points of entry for migrants, and have hardened the left-right political divide.