In This Running Estimate…
- Putin’s domestic popularity remained relatively stable at 84% in September, but support for the Russian government fell three points to 68%. Support for the War in Ukraine also remained stable at 76%, but belief in success of the war dropped to 60%. Russians wanting a negotiated end to the war rose to 54% from 50% in August, but still below the 58% in July.
- Moldova narrowly approved a constitutional amendment requiring EU Integration, and the incumbent pro-West President won the 3 November run-off with over 54% of the vote against the former state prosecutor and pro-Russia candidate.
- Continuing its efforts to re-establish a buffer against the West in its Near Abroad, Russia seeks to increase influence in Moldova through political warfare preceding and after presidential and parliamentary elections and an EU referendum.
- An exiled Moldovan oligarch convicted in abstentia of embezzlement is a power player behind pro-Russia political warfare in Moldova.