This Running Estimate…

• Russian domestic support for the war held at 76% through late August, while those “paying close attention to the war” dropped to 51% and overall “concern about the war” fell to 74%. Ongoing public responses to Russia's recent mobilization already foreshadow a substantive drop in domestic support for the war.

• Ukrainian patriotism, including use of the Ukrainian language (even among native Russian speakers), has soared since the Russian invasion, and a whole of society resistance movement has grown in Russian-occupied areas.

• The majority of Ukrainian refugees in Europe plan to return, but most will do so only under the condition that the Russian threat is resolved permanently. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is orchestrating a “Russification” strategy in the occupied regions of Ukraine.