This Running Estimate…

• Russian Domestic Support for Putin and the Special Military Operations remains high, although a majority of Russians support negotiations to end the conflict.
• Russia has a Crimea fixation, which explains its repeated efforts to unify the peninsula under Russian rule.
• Crimea is strategically important to Russian regional hegemony and Ukrainian sovereignty.
• Crimean Tatars may be a force multiplier for Ukraine if it attempts to retake Crimea.
• Zelenskyy’s call to reclaim Crimea is meant to rally Ukrainians and divert Russia’s attention, but may be a redline for Putin.