In This Running Estimate…

• Russian Domestic Support for Putin and the Special Military Operations remains high at 83%, although 45% of Russians support negotiations to end the conflict.
• Russian society is dealing with the arrival of battle-hardened criminals into communities and a rise in violent crime.
• Wagner’s long-held reputation for brutality is meant to intimidate opponents and coerce loyalty among its members.
• Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin’s feud with the Ministry of Defense over the conduct of the war, lack of combat support to Wagner, and recognition for battlefield successes resulted in the 23-24 June mutiny.
• The popularity contest between Putin and Prigozhin suggests cracks in the stability of the regime.
• As the future of Wagner PMC is decided after the mutiny, so is the future of Russian influence and exploitation activities in the Global South, which are largely carried out by Wagner.