In This Running Estimate…

• Russian domestic support for Putin and the Special Military Operation remains high, according to the most recent polling available.
• Despite consistently high levels of Russia domestic support for the Special Military Operation (SMO), there has also been an increase in public support for negotiations. The June Wagner mutiny may have been the catalyst for this, possibly indicating a drop in confidence that the SMO will accomplish its objectives.
• Chechens are playing an intricate role on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine war, though the anti-Russian Chechen contingent is nominal.