In This Running Estimate… 

• In Russian popular perspectives, Putin’s popularity dropped two points to 83%, while support for the SMO steadied at 76% after a dip in November. Belief that the SMO is successful rose four points to 66% in November, with no data for December, and support for negotiation dropped four points to 53%.
• Belarus released a new military strategy defining the United States and NATO as “unfriendly” while declaring willingness for dialogue.
• Belarus both perceives the West as a threat and displays a threatening posture to the West.
• The Lukashenko regime has waged a harsh domestic political suppression campaign since the 2020 elections yet resists mobilization or direct involvement in the war in Ukraine.