September 21th, 2020 at 1500CEST/0900ESTvia Cisco Webex Events
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Format
This event will be conducted under the Chatham House Rule: All statements are not for attribution.
Agenda
1500-1510CEST/0900-0910EST: Introductory Remarks
Russia Strategic Initiative, U.S. European CommandAndrew S. Weiss, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
1510-1600CEST/0910-1000EST: Session 1: How Strong is Russia?
Panel Abstract: This panel will offer a broad overview of the strengths and vulnerabilities of the state that Putin has built, the sustainability of its economic model, its political resilience, and the outlook for change. We will explore the role of energy as the critical pillar of the economy against the backdrop of global energy trends. We will also take stock of Russian military modernization and the impact of recent security and diplomatic trends in Europe on Russian security.
Speakers
The Home Front – Eugene Rumer, Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceThe State of the Military – Dara Massicot, RANDThe State of Russian Diplomacy – James Goldgeier, Brookings Institution; American UniversityAn Energy Superpower? – Andrew S. Weiss, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
1600-1700CEST/1000-1100EST: Session 2: How Well is Russia Doing in Key Hot Spots?
Panel Abstract: This panel will offer an in-depth look at Russian performance in key crisis areas around the periphery of Europe where Russia by virtue of its geographic position or geopolitical ambitions has positioned itself as an important actor—in the Eastern Mediterranean, in Belarus, and in the Balkans. We will examine the toolkit the Kremlin has employed in these regions and offer an assessment of its performance.
The Belarus Impasse – Nigel Gould-Davies, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean –Nigar Göksel, International Crisis GroupThe Balkans – Dimitar Bechev, University of North Carolina
1700-1730CEST/1100-1130EST: Summary Conclusions: Andrew Weiss
Andrew S. Weiss
James Family Chair, Vice President for Studies
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Andrew S. Weiss is the James Family Chair and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he oversees research in Washington and Moscow on Russia and Eurasia.
Prior to joining Carnegie, he was director of the RAND Corporation’s Center for Russia and Eurasia and executive director of the RAND Business Leaders Forum. He previously served as director for Russian, Ukrainian, and Eurasian Affairs on the National Security Council staff, as a member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, and as a policy assistant in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy during the administrations of Presidents Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush.
Eugene Rumer
Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
Eugene Rumer is a senior fellow and the director of Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program.
Prior to joining Carnegie, Rumer was the national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the U.S. National Intelligence Council from 2010 to 2014. Earlier, he held research appointments at the National Defense University, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and the RAND Corporation. He has also served on the National Security Council staff and at the State Department, taught at Georgetown University and the George Washington University, and published widely.
Dara Massicot
Senior Policy Researcher
RAND Corporation
Dara Massicot is a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. Before joining RAND, she served as a senior analyst for Russian military capabilities at the Department of Defense.
Her work at RAND focuses on defense and security issues in Russia and Eurasia. She specializes in Russian military strategy, combat operations, and power projection, as well as Russian military modernization and escalation dynamics. Her interests include force posture, force planning, and grand strategy. She is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program.
James Goldgeier
Robert Bosch Senior Visiting Fellow
Brookings Institution
James Goldgeier is a Robert Bosch senior visiting fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution and a professor of international relations at the School of International Service at American University, where he served as dean from 2011-17.
In 2018-19, he held the inaugural Library of Congress Chair in U.S.-Russia relations. Dr. Goldgeier also taught at George Washington University, Cornell University, and has held a number of public policy appointments, including director for Russian, Ukrainian and Eurasian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Henry A. Kissinger Chair at the Library of Congress.
Nigel Gould-Davies
Editor of Strategic Survey, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
Nigel Gould-Davies is the editor of Strategic Survey: The Annual Assessment of Geopolitics. He is also Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, conducting independent research and writing extensively on the politics, economics and security of the former Soviet Union.
Prior to joining the IISS Nigel taught international relations at Mahidol University in Thailand. From 2010-14 he held senior government relations roles in the energy industry in central and southeast Asia. From 2000-10 he served in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, where his roles included head of the economics department in Moscow, Ambassador to Belarus and project director in the Strategy Unit. He is author of Tectonic Politics: Global Political Risk in an Age of Transformation (Brookings, 2019).
Nigar Göksel
Project Director, Turkey
International Crisis Group
Nigar Goksel has been Turkey Project Director since April 2015. Based in Istanbul, she researches, produces reports and conducts advocacy on regional and internal security issues in Turkey, and between Turkey and its neighbours. She also oversees the work of Crisis Group office in Turkey.
Prior to joining the International Crisis Group, she served as Editor-in-Chief of Turkish Policy Quarterly – TPQ (2002-2015) and Senior Analyst at the European Stability Initiative (2004-2011).
Dimitar Bechev
Research Fellow, University of North Carolina
Director, European Policy Institute
Dimitar Bechev is the director of the European Policy Institute, a think-tank based in Sofia, Bulgaria.
Previously, he held research fellowships at Harvard University, University of Oxford and the London School of Economics, and headed the Sofia office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Dr. Bechev has written extensively on EU’s external relations, the politics and modern history of Turkey and the Balkans, and Russia’s foreign policy. His book Rival Power: Russia in Southeast Europe (Yale University Press, 2017) explores Russia’s geopolitical role in the Balkans, Greece, Cyprus, and Turkey. He is a regular contributor to Al Jazeera, the American Interest, Politico, Foreign Policy, and open Democracy.
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