20200409 Russian Procurement Plans and the Aviation Sector

When: 9 April, 2020 at 1500CEST/0900EST

Where: Zoom Webinar

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Presentation Summary

In 2020, Russia will complete its ten-year state armaments program (GPV) that was intended to resolve deficiencies revealed in the 2008 Russo-Georgian War. GPV-2020 focused on modernizing Russia’s military equipment, with the Navy and Air Force receiving the bulk of funds. Russia’s new state armament program through 2027 prioritizes Airborne and Ground Forces relevant to both large-scale conventional conflicts and smaller Syria-type expeditionary operations. In sum, the new armament plan suggests no major changes in Russian foreign policy or defense thinking.

In the new state armaments program, procurement of new equipment will fall. To keep defense industries stable amid declining state orders, the Russian government is encouraging defense firms to sell to the civilian sector. FPRI examines this effort via a case study of the aviation sector. The Kremlin and state-owned defense contractor Rostec have both prioritized aviation as a sector that can successfully sell to civilian markets at home and abroad. In practice, this hasn’t worked. The SJ-100 Superjet has flopped abroad, while the MS-21 remains years behind schedule.Civilian sales are unlikely to bolster the profitability of Russia’s aviation firms. Even if Russia cuts procurement of military aviation, as planned, the government will still be left paying to keep plane producers in business.

About the Presenter

Chris Miller is the Director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program. He is also Assistant Professor of International History at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. His research examines Russian politics, foreign policy, and economics. His most recent book is Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia which has been reviewed in publications such as The Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, The National Interest and the Times Literary Supplement.

He is also the author of The Struggle to Save the Soviet Economy: Mikhail Gorbachev and the Collapse of the USSR, which was published in 2016. He is a regular contributor to publications such as Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, the Wall Street Journal, and The American Interest. He received his PhD from Yale University and his BA from Harvard University.

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