UNCLASSIFIED              Information approved for public release: Distribution Unlimited              UNCLASSIFIED

China 2049: The Flight of a Particle Board Dragon

This report documents research and analysis conducted by the United States Army War College (USAWC) student team "Forecastica" as a group Strategic Research Requirement in support of completing a Master of Strategic Studies degree. The report's research, analysis, and production occurred over eight months, from October 2021 to May 2022, as a USAWC Senior Service College curriculum requirement. The Team consisted of the following: three US Army Colonels (O-6), one US Army Lieutenant Colonel (O-5), and one US Air Force Lieutenant Colonel (O-5): Paul Bonano, Johannes Castro, Eric Magistad, Stacy Slate, and Andrew Wiker.

This report synthesizes and analyzes open-source documents to answer the following question posed by Mr. Thomas Greco, DCS G2 for the United States Army Training and Doctrine Command (Annex A):  How can China meet its national objectives to become the world's dominant power by 2049?

Key supporting questions included:
▪ What does domination mean to China?
▪ How does China envision domination on the world stage compared to its peers, adversaries, and weaker nations?
▪ What is China's strategy through competition?
▪ What are the areas of risk for the United States and China in this race?
▪ How will China measure success?
▪ How likely is China to accomplish its goal of being the world's dominant power, and where are China's vulnerabilities in attempting to achieve this?
▪ What are the implications for the United States if they do achieve domination?