The TRADOC G-2 has recently published an update to the 2009 OE White Paper, “Capturing the Operational Environment.” The current paper, “Operational Environments to 2028: The Strategic Environment for Unified Land Operations” has been signed by General Robert W. Cone, TRADOC Commanding General and approved for widespread distribution. The paper is commonly referred to as the OE Estimate.
The OE Estimate presents a fresh look at the current and future strategic environment, key variable conditions, adversarial strategies, as well as a detailed look at the implications to leader development, training, concept development and experimentation. The OE Estimate also presents an analytical framework with which to capture the conditions of any potential OE across the globe at any level of analysis. This framework will be discussed in further detail in the forthcoming FM 5-02, Operational Environment. The Army does not have the luxury of focusing on any one potential adversary or any one mission type across the range of military operations. Instead, leaders and Soldiers must be exposed to the multiple conditions representing threats that exist across the globe. Potential threats will range from standing conventional and unconventional forces, to irregular militias and paramilitaries, to terrorist groups and criminal elements. Training, education, capabilities development, and concept development should reflect this reality.
Currently, in the midst of a global recession, the Army finds itself at a strategically important crossroad as it tries to determine where to wisely invest its limited training, personnel, and materiel resources. The strategic environment (SE) to 2028, with its combination of tough enduring problems and newly developed conditions and characteristics, will add complexity to this challenge.
To help unravel the complexities of current and near-term challenges, the OE Estimate provides a description of the key conditions manifesting across the SE through 2028. Adversarial strategies based on these conditions are also addressed.
The concluding chapter explores the military implications of both the conditions and potential adversarial strategies. We know that the current and future strategic environment will be characterized by uncertainty, complexity, and increasingly nuanced relationships. The conditions of the strategic environment must be understood, captured, and factored into Army decision-making. Only then can realistic training, the correct mix of systems and capabilities, and the proper approaches to leader development and education be identified and implemented across TRADOC and the Army in general.
The strategic environment remains as it has always been: complex. The interaction of the many variables within the environment, including human behavior, assures both fog and friction. The current strategic environment seems more ambiguous, presenting multiple layers of complexity and challenging the Army with requirements beyond traditional warfighting skills and training. Capturing the key strategic conditions is fundamental to understanding current and future military operations. Strategic conditions will be analyzed through the lens of eight OE variables—political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical environment, and time (PMESII-PT).