The past two years have seen a reversal of fortune for al Shabaab in Somalia.
Previously in control of the southern half of the country, the group now finds its
territory reduced by almost 50%. Mergers with two other organizations
have not stemmed the reversal, and may have weakened the group due to
subsequent disagreements among its leaders. Recruitment and fundraising
continue, but the latter has been hardhit by the loss of specific revenue
sources. Al Shabaab has also shifted tactics, techniques, and procedures from
more conventional warfare methods to a focus on asymmetric techniques.
Despite setbacks, the group still retains the potential to regain ground, both
physical and psychological, if allowed the opportunity. The new OEA Team
Threat Report, Al Shabaab Update (Nov 2012), reviews recent changes to the
group’s organization, associations, and area of operations.