AFRL/AFOSR Chief Scientist cordially invites you to attend the Chief Scientist Distinguished Lecture Series featuring Professor Charles Doran. We will be hosting a live ZoomGov Webinar on Thu, 15 February 2024 (1400-1500 ET) Please click the link or use the meeting log in/passcode to register in advance for the webinar.
https://www.zoomgov.com/webinar/register/WN_4ovdWhITQJmUeG8t4TCirA
Webinar ID: 161 238 4882 Passcode: 32321326
Talk Titled: Changing Relative Power and the Probability of Major War
Description: Will the 21st century break down into chaos in the way that the first half of the twentieth century did? In the 20th century, two World Wars and a Great Depression fractured world order, tearing apart the orderly functioning of statecraft. Power cycle theory is an understanding of world order that explores the changing structure of the great power system across long periods of history, and explains how that changing structure has precipitated major wars historically.
Power cycle theory rejects the notion of a simple dyadic contest between a “hegemon” and a “challenger.” According to power cycle theory, each great power passes through a cycle of relative power and foreign policy role within the existing great power system of the age. A consensus among historians and policy analysts is that the 19th century great power system consisted of Britain, France, Prussia/Germany, Russia, and Austria/Hungary. Today the great power system is composed of the United States, China, the “European complex,” Russia, Japan, and, rising quickly on the outskirts of that system, India. The power cycles of these great powers “coevolve” as part of a “single dynamic” determined by differential rates of growth throughout the system on a variety of indicators.
Massive, abrupt, unexpected, change in the trajectory of relative power sharply increases the probability of war at “critical points” on the state power cycle where a sudden inversion in the trend of expectations occurs, such that the level or the momentum of the state’s power trajectory strongly shifts. In brief, governments refuse to accept these assaults on their role and position in the international system. Force use occurs. Major war breaks out.
This discussion will examine the answers to some of the challenges to power cycle theory that have ended up reinforcing the theory, and the reliability and validity of its empirical results. An example is whether structural change is sufficiently massive at the critical points to precipitate a behavioral change such as force use. Another is whether, and how, structural change actually shapes perception and misperception in world politics.
Discussion concludes with an application of these ideas to the rise of China and to the comparative likelihood of war today.
Bio: Charles F. Doran is the Andrew W. Mellon Professor of International Relations at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, D.C., where he directs the Global Theory and History Program and the International Political Economy Program. An analyst of structural change and security in world politics, Dr. Doran created the Power Cycle Theory of state rise and decline, revolutionizing the static understanding of neo-realism.
Dr. Doran has authored more than 100 books and articles, including Myth, Oil, and Politics, Forgotten Partnership, Power Cycle Theory and Global Politics, and Systems in Crisis, the last nominated by Cambridge University Press for the Gelber Prize.
Amidst strategic developments, Dr. Doran has been called to lead policy assessments, testify before committees of Congress, and advise decision-makers regarding OPEC policy, Gulf security, Arctic security, global energy, and threat assessment rankings. A pioneer in political risk analysis, he also consulted widely for the oil, banking, and chemical industries. His expertise has frequently been sought by the domestic and international press, and C-Span features his interviews online. His writings have been translated into nine languages.
Dr. Doran has received the Governor Generals International Award, the Donner Medal, and the American Political Science Association’s Lifetime Achievement Award in Canadian Studies. From the 6000-member International Studies Association, he received the Distinguished Scholar Award for Foreign Policy. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Cosmos Club.