OE Watch Commentary: Somalia has been mired in a combination of civil war, famine, political instability, and in some areas almost continuous chaos for nearly three decades. As the accompanying excerpted article from South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies explains, there are many underlying causes for the country’s woes, but climate change in particular is poorly understood. While the country is stuck in war, there are six million people facing starvation and it is important that this key factor be examined so that possible ways may be developed to help mitigate its adverse effects.
The article’s authors state that about 70 percent of the Somali population is dependent upon a regular climate pattern in order for them to meet their basic needs. With the government having only very limited capacity to assist its populace, when that pattern is disrupted, a large number of people suffer the consequences. As an example, climate change-related desertification has resulted in less land suitable for farming or grazing, making an already vulnerable population even more so, with some turning to conflict as a way to survive.
The article further dissects this climate-change-causing-conflict-thesis and lists three ways it occurs. The first is that it sharpens disputes among warlords over already scarce resources. With less access to water during droughts, disease breaks out, there is less food grown, and clans that had co-existed relatively peaceably before fight over the remaining and still diminishing water supplies. The second way climate change leads to conflict is that during droughts young people often face food insecurity and no job prospects. In these instances al-Shabaab, which offers both food and work, becomes a very tempting proposition to those hungry, unemployed youths. The third and final way discussed in the article as to how climate change leads to conflict is through generating large numbers of migrants. As of 2016, at least one million Somalis are internally displaced. As these people traverse the country, they are at risk of being attacked, with rape a regular occurrence.
To mitigate the effects of climate change and in turn decrease conflict in Somalia, the international community is being called upon to provide the financial and technical resources necessary for the country to build resilience. Some countries have answered that call, but with Somalia’s long history of not always spending aid money well, it is uncertain at this time as to how many countries will respond with large commitments. End OE Watch Commentary (Feldman)
Climate change feeds armed conflict in Somalia in three ways: by exacerbating tensions between clans; boosting the ranks and role of terrorist groups, including al-Shabaab; and increasing migration.
Conflict prevention in the Horn must include environmental initiatives, not just counter-terrorism and piracy efforts.
Second, the relationship between the proliferation of illegal armed groups and the severe droughts in Somalia is evident in the case of al-Shabaab. The group has been successful in attracting young people who are affected by famine and food insecurity and who face no job prospects. Those youth end up joining al-Shabaab in a bid to survive, finding no other option than to get involved with the extremist group.