Gerasimov on Future War and Modernization Priorities

OE Watch Commentary: The Chief of the General Staff, First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, General Valeriy Gerasimov, addressed the plenary session of the Academy of Military Sciences at the General Staff Academy about the nature of future war and Russia’s modernization priorities, as described in the accompanying excerpted article from RIA Novosti. The keynote speech by the Chief of the General Staff has traditionally been the highlight of these events, and make it possible to understand what the “Russian Army’s brain” is concerned with, which wars it considers most likely, and how it intends to prepare for those wars. In 2001, for example, the former Chief of the General Staff, Anatoliy Kvashnin, spoke about the conflict between supporting the conventional forces or strategic nuclear deterrent forces and was quoted saying “The Russian Army resembles a person whose one hand (the Strategic Rocket Forces) is pumped up, while the other one (the conventional forces) is short, weak, and withered.” A few years later one of General Kvashnin’s successors, General Makarov, would
initiate the greatest reorganization of the Russian Armed Forces in over 100 years, resulting in a major modernization of the conventional forces.

In the article Gerasimov speaks about many of his previously discussed themes, including the fact that Russia’s military is modernizing and continuing to develop non-nuclear deterrence capabilities. As in the past, there was also a mention of the trend toward the blurring of distinctions between peacetime and war. Gerasimov discussed how the boundaries of the theater of military operations are expanding and that “The adversary’s economic facilities and state governance systems will be the primary targets for destruction.” He also points out the importance of information and space by stating “In addition to the traditional realms of armed conflict, the information and space realms will be actively involved” and indirectly mentions the importance of electronic warfare by saying “countering communication, reconnaissance, and navigation systems will also play a special role.”

The accompanying excerpted article from TASS lays out General Gerasimov’s modernization priorities in four areas. The first is the development of a new Reconnaissance-Strike System (ROS), which may be a reference to the already fielded Strelets ROS, which has reportedly been quite capable. The new ROS is intended to reduce the cycle for completing fire missions by 2–2.5 times and increase the accuracy of targeting by 1.5–2 times. The second area is on improvements to command and control structures and information technology for precision weapons, which will reduce the time for preparing for the use of high-precision weapons by 1.5 times. The third area focuses on the continued development of counter UAV technologies, some of which will be based upon “new physical principles.” The last modernization priority is the development of Reconnaissance-Strike UAVs, which will not only conduct reconnaissance missions, but will also be armed for combat missions. End OE Watch Commentary (Bartles)